Monday, December 11, 2006

Hurricane Bookies Set Odds for 2007

For the weather gamblers among us, Colorado State University's tropical odds-makers, Dr. Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray, are out with their annual December over-and-under for 2007.

The hurricane bookies are calling for 14 named Atlantic basin tropical storms next year, half of them reaching hurricane strength. AP has distilled the numbers for us:
The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should have above-average activity, with three major hurricanes and a good chance that at least one of them will make landfall, a top hurricane researcher said.
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[T]here is a 64 percent chance of one of the major hurricanes -- with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater -- coming ashore. The long-term average probability is 52 percent... ."
The academic bookmakers are red-faced but undaunted over missing two years in a row. They were badly under in 2005, predicting only 11 named storms (there were 28) and badly over for 2006 (17 named storms predicted, 9 developed). As Michael Christie of Reuters put it a couple of weeks ago, "The noted hurricane forecasting team led by Dr. William Gray at Colorado State University has not missed by this much in a long time."

Klotzbach says, 'Blame it on El Niño.' (Sounds like a rumba, doesn't it?)

Houston's Science Guy says, quite sensibly, "I wouldn't put too much stock in any of these forecasts."

Hey! It is a rumba!

"Blame It On El Niño"

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