Bertha: Beginning of the End

"Global models are now in fairly good agreement that Bertha will head for a weakness in the Mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge and turn northward later in the forecast period," says the latest NHC advisory. But an NHC expert adds, "It is still way too soon to determine whether or not Bertha will affect Bermuda."

Hurricane Bertha Models

Even as Hurricane Bertha strengthens, indications are increasing that it is not likely to directly hit the U.S. coast. No guarantees, of course, but below you can see the latest computerized storm models, courtesy of Hurricane City.

On the other hand, if you have reservations to see Bermuda at the end of this week, you might want to hang loose, at the least.

'Borderline Bertha' Becomes A Hurricane

The second-named Atlantic Basin tropical storm of the season has become a hurricane as of 4 am CDT Monday. At the moment, much about Hurricane Bertha remains borderline -- strength, direction, and possibility of landfall. Some models continue to project a slight strengthening, then sheering winds as it makes a slow, harmless turn northward into the northern Atlantic. But if the hurricane slows for too long, it's possible steering currents will eventually weaken.

Landfall somewhere along the North American landmass then cannot be excluded. Not yet, anyway. Simply put, NHC says "it's too early to say":

A continued west-northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days... as Bertha remains over the waters of the central tropical Atlantic. It is still too early to determine if Bertha will eventually affect any land areas.

Inquiring minds can keep up with Bertha at Jim Williams' Hurricane City. Itchy fingers can join in the HC Message Board there.

T.S. Bertha to Bust

Bertha, the second named tropical storm of the season, likely will turn north inside a couple of days and fall apart as it heads north toward Arctic waters, the National Hurricane Center indicates today.