Ida - Now They Tell Us

NHC, Monday 9 pm:

THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF IDA'S LANDFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE SINCE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COVER A LARGE AREA AND MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS ALREADY SPREADING ONSHORE.

Well, at least The Weather Channel got a spike in ratings.

More Closings as Ida Grows Weaker

Santa Rosa County schools and courts will be closed Tuesday, in light of Tropical Storm Ida, which is growing weaker even as you read this. S.R. county government offices will be closed until Thursday.

The center of the storm is a little more than a hundred miles off shore as of 4 pm CST. It's expected to speed up, weaken even more, and make landfall some time after midnight. Total rainfall accumulations, when it's all over, are expected to be "3 to 6 inches" with isolated exceptions as high as 8 inches.

Lord help us if the Florida Panhandle ever gets a half inch of snow.

Ida Radar Over Pensacola Beach

CLICK THIS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS

The Republi-Bluedem White Male Party

While we were busy watching Ida, the Republi-Bluedem White Male Party was deciding for all women in America what to do with their bodies and how they should procreate. Dr. Nancy finds it "Outrageous. Just outrageous."

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Ida Goes Extra-Tropical

That was quick. Here's the meteorological explanation:

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA HAS BEEN STEADILY DETERIORATING DURING THE MORNING. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED OFF WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...

WITH IDA MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF BAROCLINIC RE-INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL...SO THE HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED...LEAVING ONLY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN PLACE.

The plain English version: Ida is "extra-tropical," just like great-great-great grandpa. We might have a rainy couple of days.

Ida - Monday Morning Update

NPR has a useful and fairly comprehensive update this morning on Hurricane Ida. The short of it is this --

• Ida is weakening. It's a category 1 storm, and expected to weaken further before landfall.
  
• The center of the storm is expected to hit the shore late tonight, well after dark.
• "Hurricane warnings remained in effect from Pascagoula, Miss., east to Indian Pass, Fla."
• Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal declared a state of emergency (which means he is demanding more of that federal stimulus money he so likes to criticize.)
• Dauphin Island and Mobile look to be in the bullseye.
• "Residents of Pensacola Beach, Fla., and nearby Perdido Key were encouraged to leave, as were people farther inland who live in mobile homes... ."
• Two hours east of Pensacola, at Point Marina in Panama City, Steve Arndt's gut is telling him "it probably won't be that bad." But there's not much of a gut on that guy, so it's hard to tell if he knows what his stomach is rumbling.
  

Hurricane Ida Closings and Twitters in Pensacola

By the numbers:

1. All local Gulf Power linemen and other emergency repair workers were alerted Sunday afternoon they will be called in for extra duty Monday afternoon.
   
2. Local news sources are reporting Escambia county public schools, pre-schools, and county offices will be closed all day Monday and Tuesday.
   
3. Most private schools are closing as well.
   
4. Santa Rosa schools, as of Sunday evening, plan to remain open Monday. Stay tuned about Tuesday.
   
5. The county is twittering that "Residents of low-lying areas, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Key and mobile home residents are urged to evacuate." Local TV scrolls claim evacuation should begin at 7 am Monday.
   
6. The main web site for Escambia County's Emergency Management, as of 9 pm Sunday evening, remains unchanged. Lame. Very lame. They may wake up by 9 am Monday.
7. Get the latest county twitter here.
   

Ida in the Gulf

NHC English translation:

• Ida is in the Gulf of Mexico, rapidly heading north with a target anywhere within a hundred miles either side of Mobile-Pensacola.
• The inner center of the storm remains modest in size, but tropical-force winds could extend up to a radius of fifty miles from the center.
  
• Ida is likely to weaken quickly as it encounters colder waters and air temperatures over the next 36 hours.
  
• It might or might not be a hurricane when it makes landfall, but it's sure to be very wet, windy, and accompanied by a storm surge and damaging waves along the coast.

What Can Jeff Miller Say?

Steve Benen:

For all the talk about vulnerable Democrats having to defend their support for reform, let's not overlook the fact that GOP incumbents are likely to hear more about their vote supporting their version of reform again. After all, the Republican plan was pretty ridiculous -- the GOP alternative did nothing for the uninsured, nothing for those with pre-existing conditions, and nothing for those worried about losing coverage when it's needed most. * * * The GOP proposal sought to create a system that "works better for people who don't need health care services, and much worse for people who actually are sick or who become sick in the future. It's basically a health un-insurance policy."

And as we learned yesterday, the plan included provisions that "mirror the suggestions put forth by the lobbying entity of the private insurance industry way back in December 2008."

Expect this vote to come up quite a bit next year.

What can Jeff Miller say to Northwest Floridians? How about, 'I voted for the bill drafted by the health insurance industry because I want you to go away.'

Ida Calling in 36-48 Hours

Ida at present is a Cat 2 hurricane. NHC Advisory: "A hurricane watch has been issued east of the Mississippi/Alabama border to Mexico Beach, Florida."

Highlights from the 11:00 am NHC discussion:

• Hurricane Ida is moving a little faster than projected earlier.
• This means it will reach the northern Gulf Coast a little quicker than previously believed, and the likelihood of a sudden turn to the East before landfall has diminished.
• "The center of Ida" will make landfall in 38-48 hours.
• That center, however, could well have deteriorated to something less than a hurricane.
  
• Pensacola Beach remains near the center of projected landfall.

Rain, wind, and some beach erosion. That much looks unavoidable.

Hurricane Ida on Track for Pensacola-Mobile

Ida became a Category 1 hurricane overnight, moved a little closer to the Yucatan peninsula, and is expected to strengthen to a Cat 2 before entering the Gulf of Mexico. She is expected to make landfall somewhere along the "East-Central Gulf Coast in 48 to 72 hours." At 7:50 am this morning, Weather Channel hurricane guru Steve Lyons was predicting a "Pensacola-Mobile" landfall Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.

One good thing: the storm is smaller than your average bear. Hurricane force winds have a radius of only 15 miles from the center. Another good thing: The storm is expected to begin weakening Monday evening, well before landfall.

T.S. Ida Threatens Pensacola

Believe it. A named tropical storm -- Ida -- has been born off the Yucatan Peninsula and current forecasts have it becoming a hurricane later tonight, then entering the Gulf of Mexico and heading north. It is expected to make landfall somewhere along the central Gulf Coast on Tuesday.

As of early Saturday evening, Pensacola is the bulls-eye. That's the bad news.

The good news is the storm may encounter a "mid- to upper-level trough" of cold air that could weaken it.

Fast History

Say what you will about Wikipedia, this was fast -- and accurate!

"Tancredo Walks Off MSNBC Set" - Friday, Nov. 6, 7:00 pm CDT:

As a Republican student activist, Tancredo spoke out in favor of the Vietnam War but did not serve. After graduating from college in June 1969, he became eligible to serve in Vietnam. Tancredo said he went for his physical, telling doctors he'd been treated for depression, and eventually got a deferment.

Wikipedia edit - Friday Nov. 6, 10:21 pm CDT:

On November 6, 2009 , Tancredo walked out in the middle of an interview on [[The Ed Show]] because he was called out by Daily Kos founder and US Army veteran Markos Moulitsas for avoiding service in Vietnam by obtaining a diagnosis of depression. Tancredo said he did not have to be insulted in that way but made no denial of Moulitsas' charge.

Back Asswards Rescue

Harvard Prof. Elizabeth Warren:

"Let's face it. This is sort of how we went about the rescue -- we rescued at the top and we left the bottom to kind of fend for itself -- and that's showing up in the unemployment numbers."

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

As we have said before, "FDR's New Deal program was designed mainly to help the little guy get on his feet. George Bush's program, which Obama has left essentially in place, was aimed at helping the rich get richer." That's why we now have nearly eleven percent unemployment.

The Greatest Divide

House G.O.P Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) doesn't know the difference between the Constitution and the Declaration of Independence. And he's the G.O.P.'s top lawmaker, for gawd's sake? There's a rather large difference between the two.

Another Republican congressman, Todd Aiken (R-OH) can't remember the words to the Pledge of Allegiance. Truly, the greatest divide in politics is between people who know what they're talking about and those who don't.