Friday, December 04, 2009

We Have a Winner!

Famed Colorado State hurricane forecasters Dr. William Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach consider themselves "successful" in the 2009 Annual Tropical Weather Forecast Derby. They're winners!

This is very good news. By the standards they use, we must have won the Florida Lottery.

Gray and Klotzbach's first forecast for the just-ended hurricane season, issued a year ago this week, only missed the mark by 57 percent ( 4 hurricanes too many). They also cleaned up on the undercard with Named Storms (35 percent wrong)... Named Storm Days (61 percent wrong)... Hurricane Days (62 percent wrong)... Major Hurricanes (33 percent wrong)... and Major Hurricane Days (53 percent wrong).

With a record like that, it's a wonder Gray and Klotzbach didn't lose the shirt they take turns wearing by investing in General Motors, C.I.T., Chrysler, and General Growth Properties. (Oops! Maybe they did!)

In case anyone's wondering, Dr. William Gray generously shares all the credit for the team's performance this year with his understudy: "Phil is now devoting much more time to the improvement of these forecasts than I am," he writes modestly. "I am now giving more of my efforts to the global warming issue."

We know how that's going. Another "winner"!

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