Ernesto, back to only tropical storm strength for the nonce, may strengthen again and then filet the Florida peninsula from south to north, the Keys to Jacksonville.Northwest Florida is unlikely to be affected. Instead of evacuating Pensacola Beach, hoteliers will be hanging out their 'Vacancy' signs.
The NHC says on Monday at 5 am:
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A POSSIBLE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
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THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR... JUST AS ERNESTO IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.
1 comment:
I hate to be a sensationalist, but it is worth noting that the track for Ernesto has again started to wobble back in a W-NW motion instead of a NW motion. It certainly need to be watched by those hoteliers.
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