Errnesto Surprises Hurricane Experts

"If anything in this graphic causes confusion, ignore the entire product"
-- Legend below the 'official unofficial' NHC computer spaghetti models forecasting storms

UPDATE BELOW
After several days of hand-wringing by internet storm-watchers over the possibility that soon-to-be Hurricane Ernesto looked like it was heading for the central Gulf Coast somewhere between Port Arthur, Texas, and Pensacola, the early Sunday morning forecast contains some dramatic surprises. The Hurricane Center says at 5 am EDT:

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS..AND NOW TAKES ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

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ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS NOW AGREE ON RECURVATURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND 96 HOURS...AND TAKE ERNESTO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 120 HOURS.

Heads up Orlando!

While not quite out of the long-range forecast cone painted by various computer models, in less than 8 hours Pensacola has shifted from being on the far-eastern edge of the long-range warning cone to the far-western edge. Adding to the uncertainty is the unknowable effects on storm intensity if Ernesto has a significant or prolonged encounter with the mountainous regions of eastern and central Cuba.

This should be a humbling reminder that humankind has yet to get a grip over Mother Nature's intentions, much less how to change her mind.

UPDATE - SUNDAY 7:30 am CDT
Ernesto is officially a hurricane.