Thursday, August 06, 2009

Bienvenidos, El Niño!

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:
NOAA now expects a near- to below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, as the calming effects of El Niño continue to develop.
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NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, now predicts a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 40 percent probability of a below-normal season, and a 10 percent probability of an above-normal season. Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of seven to 11 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes, including one to two major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5).

The main change from the May outlook is an increased probability of a below-normal season, and an expectation of fewer named storms and hurricanes. The May outlook called for nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes. During an average season, there are 11 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph, of which six become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater and two of those become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.
In another weather forecasting news, we are predicting the Philadelphia Phillies will suvive the weather to win the 2008 World Series, the Mars Climate Orbiter will fail in 1998, and a great big black cloud will engulf the Midwest on April 14, 1935.

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