Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Ike Enters Gulf, Still Aims for Texas

Hurricane Ike has entered the Gulf of Mexico after devastating much of Cuba. The latest storm path projections appear aimed at Houston. The Houston Chronicle reports:
Forecasters said Ike, which has already killed at least 80 people in the Caribbean, could strengthen into a massive Category 3 storm before slamming into Texas or Mexico this weekend.
In the late afternoon discussion, National Hurricane Center forecasters say --
THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS... WITH THE GFS... GFDL... AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF RUNS.
Translation: There's a good possibility, now, that Houston or points east of there may be hit by the hurricane's eye, rather than closer to the Mexican border.
IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE... BUT ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.
Withe the long-range models wavering East and West and East again, as they have been, Ike still bears watching by everyone along the Gulf Coast.

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