Saturday, September 06, 2008

Ike Predictions from the U.S. Navy

UPDATED BELOW
U.S. Navy meteorologists currently are forecasting Hurricane Ike will make landfall in eastern Cuba tomorrow, then begin a day-long trek across that island nation's length. The Florida Keys are under a mandatory evacuation; tourists are leaving today, residents tomorrow.
UPDATE
9-6 pm
NHC 4 pm (CDT):

Ike is again a Category 4 storm. All models now agree it will move into the Gulf of Mexico after passing or transversing Cuba. Once that happens --
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE'S EVENTUAL TRACK AT THE EXTENDED RANGES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS... WITH THE GFDL MODEL SHOWING IKE TURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS... WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE BYPASSING IKE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD.

IT IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO COMMIT TO EITHER ONE OF THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS.

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