Ike is again a Category 3 hurricane, restrengthening now that it is back over open water. NHC reports, "Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles... from the center... and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles. "NHC forecaster "Avila" says in the morning discussion that Ike will "continue on a general West-Northwest track for the next tree days." He means, of course, three days. There are no trees in open water. We can hope Avila reads charts better than he spell-checks.
He concludes:
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY INLAND.Houston, you have a problem.
I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR FORECAST TRACK SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THEREAFTER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT SO HIGH BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE MORE SPREAD OUT... BUT THEY ALL BRING THE HURRICANE ASHORE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS... AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
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