Saturday, July 09, 2005

Dennis Gaining Strength Again


Hurricane Dennis surprised weather experts by nearly losing its hurricane status during a longer than expected sojourn over central Cuba overnight. By 7 am Saturday morning, however, the National Hurricane Center was warning the public in its traditional capital letters shout:
"DENNIS RESTRENGTHENING...BACK TO CATEGORY TWO..."
The projected storm path remains dead-on for Pensacola as of 5am.

At 5 am, the NHC discussion read:
DENNIS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WHILE MOVING OVER CUBA. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A 12 NMI EYE AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 972 MB. HOWEVER...THE PLANE HAS NOT REPORTED ANY WINDS HIGHER THAN 71 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KNOTS...AND THIS IS VERY GENEROUS. *** THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND RE-STRENGTHENS DENNIS OVER THE GULF BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD LATER TODAY. NORMALLY... IT TAKES 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR A CYCLONE TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF LAND...IF AT ALL.
However, by 7 am the Public Advisory, quoted above, rated Dennis a Category 2.

Local residents are taking no chances. Tens of thousands have evacuated. The Miami Herald (free subscription required) is running an AP dispatch quoting a Gulf Breeze resident whose discouragement is replicated by many throughout this area:
Hurricane-force winds of at least 74 mph extended up to 65 miles from Dennis' center, and tropical storm-force winds stretched up to 175 miles out, so the Keys could be damaged even if they are spared a direct hit. Flooding was also possible in much of the state because the ground is saturated from recent heavy rains.

Many in Dennis' strike zone were aware that it was following nearly in the path of Ivan, which came ashore at the Florida-Alabama line, causing 29 deaths and $4 billion damage in the Panhandle alone.

Mitch Lamb had lived in a government-issued travel trailer while his home was being repaired and only recently moved back. About 9,300 other trailers were still in use by Floridians whose homes were damaged or destroyed by the hurricanes.

As he packed up his belongings Friday, Lamb was ready to give up on his Gulf Breeze home after spending $70,000 out of his own pocket on repairs.

"I hope this house is gone when I get back because I do not want to go through it again," he said. "We'll just sell the waterfront property and take the loss."
In nearby Mobile, Alabama, officials Saturday morning ordered a "mandatory evacuation" of 500,000 people -- all of Mobile County and that portion of Baldwin County south of I-10.

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