Searching for good news

As of 11 am EDT, Hurricane Dennis continues to strengthen as well as speed up. That's the bad news. For those hungering for any semblance of good news, try this from the National Hurricane Center:

THE MOTION HAS BEEN MORE NORTHWESTWARD THAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DENNIS IS APPARENTLY WEAKER THAN EARLIER PREDICTED. THIS MAY IN PART BE A RESULT OF ADDITIONAL STEERING FLOW INFORMATION OBTAINED FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET SURVEILLANCE MISSION LAST NIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...SOME OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS...HAVE SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THEIR EARLIER SOLUTIONS. THIS NECESSITATES AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK."

For Pensacola, any shift to the East for Dennis' projected path holds out the promise of leaving us on the (generally) safer northwestern quadrant of the storm as it comes ashore.

Verification lies in the 'strike probability' numbers . According to the 8 am forecast, Apalachicola and Panama City now have an ever-so-slightly higher chance of being within 65 nautical miles of the center of the storm in the next five days.

To be sure, 18 percent versus 16 percent isn't much of a comfort. But it's something.

On the other hand, it's still far too early to make anything but an educated guess where this hurricane is going and how strong it will be at landfall. The only thing we know for sure is it will be very, very bad for some people.