Thursday, July 14, 2005

Go West, Young Emily, Go West

Newly-designated Hurricane Emily is headed WNW on a projected track that nearly all computer models suggest would bring it over the Yucatan peninsula in several more days. The experimental 5-day NHC forecast shows Emily re-emerging in the western Gulf by early Tuesday.

At the moment, the best guess seems to be that atmospheric conditions will continue to influence Emily in a westerly direction. The Yucatan peninsula is a wide, low, flat, heavily forested shelf of limestone. Assuming this ancient center of Late Classic Mayan civilization doesn't smother the storm, a likely second landfall would be near South Padre Island in southern Texas.

South Texas has never been the center of any classic civilization. The last hurricane to make landfall there, according to news reports, discomfitted mostly cattle.

Not to wish ill on any people or cows, but let's hope the experts have it right. Go West, young Emily, go West.

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