Presidential Tuesday: June 15 BP Oil Spill Update

1. Oilcast.

Temperatures should moderate slightly today and wind and water conditions will be much the same as yesterday: a light breeze and relatively calm waters. Except for moderately increased cloud conditions and a continuing Southwest-to-Northeast very light breeze, these are very nearly ideal conditions for any community facing an aggressive oil slick.

2. Oil in Pensacola Bay.

Yesterday afternoon, Southwest winds (bad) remained light (good). A very light chop (good) caused only small, scattered whitecaps (bad). Short of absolutely dead-still conditions, that's about as good as it gets this time of year in Pensacola.

Nevertheless, a large oil slick breached the orange booms at the head of Pensacola Pass, slipped past skimmers, divided at the western edge of the Gulf Breeze peninsula and now is sloshing around Pensacola Bay and Santa Rosa Sound.

Oil sheens were spotted as far inshore as the Bob Sikes Bridge on Santa Rosa Sound. Scattered clusters of tar balls, red weathered crude and mousse were observed across much of Pensacola Bay as well as inside Little Sabine Bay. Oil seeped into the grass beds in and around Lafitte Cove, where Pensacola Beach's Peg Leg Pete's restaurant is located.
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During a ride aboard a Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission boat Monday afternoon, [Pensacola News Journal] reporters saw a 100-yard-long swath of quarter-sized brown tar balls floating more than a mile inside of Pensacola Pass.

3. What's Lies Beneath Mobile Bay?

In Mobile Bay, Ben Raines reports, the Mobile Press-Register on its own used depth finders to locate "dozens of places with... unusual readings at depths ranging from 10 feet to nearly 50 feet at the bottom of the ship channel."

In some cases, the anomalous readings began just below the surface and continued down to depths of 20 feet or more. In other cases, depth finders showed what appeared to be a layer of material floating above the seafloor, separated from the bottom by about 4 feet of water.
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The areas yielding the unusual readings appeared to have defined edges. Moving away from the areas caused the depth finder image to return to normal. In some cases, areas with the abnormal readings were perhaps 20 feet across. In other cases, they were 100 yards or more across.

Divers descending to twenty feet below the surface found "nothing but murky water." No fish, no visible oil, no vegetation. Dauphin Island sea Lab's George Crozier "said that he was intrigued by the unusual readings."

He told the newspaper, "I don't know if that is oil down there. We'll send the boats out and try and get some samples taken."

4. Obama in Pensacola.

Well, we blew it with our beach hotel prediction. President Obama didn't take our advice and enjoy a night on Pensacola Beach. Instead, he checked into the Crowne Plaza Grand Hotel on the mainland.

That's the hotel that hides a charming nineteenth century railroad depot beneath its ample skirts, so visitors won't know it's there. The best view the Crowne Plaza offers guests, we would imagine, is a stunning look right in your face of Pensacola's hideous all-cement Convention Center. Just beyond that is St. Michael's Cemetery.

As the late Willie Junior once said, only in Pensacola would you see politicians building a convention center next door to a bunch of dead bodies. Willie may have been guilty as charged, but he was a funny man.

Staying at the Grand is so conventional. No change we can believe in. Visiting dignitaries, business tycoons, books authors on tour, and politicians always wind up there.

Some years ago a good friend of ours came through Pensacola. His publisher put him up at what was then known, simply, as the Grand Hotel. After the obligatory semi-formal author's dinner, we rescued him from all the hangers-on who wanted autographs and brought him out to the beach.

There, he spent the night amiably chatting with half a dozen of our friends in the locally famous driveway of our next door beach neighbor, Jamo Pihakis. Jamo, some people claim, lives in his garage.

However that may be, friends from all over the island drop by his place nightly to engage in that nearly extinct, pre-television custom known as "neighborly conversation." It's one of the most enjoyable charms of beach life. And, it's free! Later, our friend said it was one of the most enjoyable nights he'd ever spent on book tour.

Heck, if we'd known President Obama preferred cement, we're sure Jamo would have offered to bed him down in the driveway.

5. Cement Job.

Speaking of cement, New Orleans Times-Picayne's Rebecca Mowbray Monday had a superb article yesterday summarizing the similarities and differences between BP's oil well disaster on April 20 and the "blowout of Australia's Montara well" in August, 2009.

The Australian oil spill was in shallow water and it wasn't attributable to failure of blowout preventer (because there wasn't one). But, Mowbray writes, "what they do have in common is problems with the cementing job on the well, an oil release and missteps in shutting down the well and dealing with the oil."

Note to readers: We'll try to update the blog later today, after the president leaves our oil-stained beach.
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Obama Visits, Pensacola Prepares: Friday June 11 BP Oil Leak Update

1. Weekend Oilcast
2. President Obama Visits
3. Live Chat
4. Skeptical of the Enemy
5. Parental Warning
6. Pensacola Prepares
7. Must Hear
1. Weekend Oilcast.

As yesterday, the forecast for today and the coming weekend is hot and mostly dry, with a moderate surf. Perfect beach weather, except for the light south winds, which will likely push the oil even closer to us.

2. President Obama Visits.

President Obama will visit Pensacola Monday, the White House announced late yesterday. A specific itinerary has not yet been released. We're guessing he will want to see Perdido Bay or Pensacola Pass, the westernmost points of vulnerability for Florida. This can be done from the vantage points either of the mainland or Santa Rosa Island.

3. Live Chat.

Before the president arrives, his White House Director of the Office of Energy and Climate Change Policy, Carol Browner, will be holding a live chat in Washington today. It's scheduled to start at 11:30 Central Daylight Time. Click here for instructions on how to listen in or submit questions.

4. Skeptical of the Enemy.

Late yesterday, as we mentioned in an update, the government's Flow Rate Technical Group released new calculations of the Deepwater Horizon disaster. As the New York Times reports today, the blue ribbon panel of scientists "essentially doubled its estimate of how much oil has been spewing from the out-of-control BP well" since April 20.
The new calculation shows "an amount equivalent to the Exxon Valdez disaster could be flowing into the Gulf of Mexico every 8 to 10 days."

The new estimate is 25,000 to 30,000 barrels of oil a day. That range, still preliminary, is far above the previous estimate of 12,000 to 19,000 barrels a day.

And, needless to say, the new calculation far exceeds BP's lies about 1,000 to 5,000 barrels a day which the corporation was peddling for weeks after the well blew up. Times reporters Gillis and Fountain add:

The higher estimates will affect not only assessments of how much environmental damage the spill has done but also how much BP might eventually pay to clean up the mess — and it will most likely increase suspicion among skeptics about how honest and forthcoming the oil company has been throughout the catastrophe. [emphasis added]

Being a skeptic, frankly, our own suspicions about BP hardly needed to be increased. We know who the enemy is. It has been assaulting our nation's shores for almost two months.

Now, we learn from Mac McClelland of Mother Jones Magazine that BP is stalling the government on two pending requests for (1) the verifying data about damage claims and payments which BP has been loudly touting and (2) a list of clean-up subcontractors the oil company is using. Her article includes ends with an amusing "letter" to the Obama administration:

Remember that one time when BP told the Coast Guard that top kill was working and then the Coast Guard told everyone else and then it turned out that wasn't true? Well, despite every single thing BP has ever said being false, there appears to be zero oversight of the information it's releasing about its cleanup effort.
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Dear Obama administration: Please tell me that a hungover 30-year-old sitting around in her underwear reading press releases on the couch is not really the first person to ask for verification or at least a spreadsheet backing up BP's stats.

Mac has more here....

5. Parental Warning.

The many miles of sandy beaches along Pensacola Beach and Santa Rosa Island as a whole remain open and vulnerable to the oil sheen and tarballs. As yet, thankfully, little of that has been seen.

Tourists and locals continue to flock to the beach despite media reports of tarballs on the beach. All the swimmers we've talked with, and most of the adults with children, appear alert to the danger.

Still, it's unnerving to see a few adults watching from a distance their toddlers and young ones playing the water's edge. We keep reading that fresh tarballs look like "chocolate" -- and they do. (see below). It's easy to imagine a small child picking one up and shoving it in the mouth.

6. Pensacola Prepares.

We've been posting photos of Ft. Pickens and Pensacola Bay over the last month. [See e.g. here, here, here, and here.] Barrier Island Girl, who is a real photographer, has more here, here, and here, among other pages. Few of them show the evil tarballs and none an oil slick. But we know they're coming, and so does the president.

Yesterday at Casino Beach there was almost no evidence of tarballs, although a sheen of oil was reported to be just a mile off shore. Swimmers were cautious, relieved to find the water clean, and eager for fun in the surf.

On the mainland, bays, bayous, and other smaller bodies of water that feed directly into Pensacola Bay are being boomed. Booms can be closed quickly when oil threatens, although they likely will not be effective in a vigorous surf.

Estuaries, wetlands, and lagoons that do not directly feed into vulnerable Gulf waters are left to their own devices. Pictured below is a finger of Hawkshaw Lagoon, separated from Pensacola Bay by a thin rocky barrier.

7. Must-Hear.

A must hear: "Fresh Air's" superb veteran host Terri Gross yesterday spoke with ProPublica reporter Abrahm Lustgarten about newly revealed internal corporate documents "from a person close to BP." They are powerful evidence that BP has a deeply ingrained disregard for safety, environmental protection, and equipment maintenance. Click the podcast:


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'Worst Case' Oil Spill Scenario

UPDATED BELOW
Ben Raines in today's Mobile Register:

The worst-case scenario for the broken and leaking well gushing oil into the Gulf of Mexico would be the loss of the wellhead currently restricting the flow to 5,000 barrels -- or 210,000 gallons per day.

If the wellhead is lost, oil could leave the well at a much greater rate, perhaps up to 150,000 barrels -- or more than 6 million gallons per day -- based on government data showing daily production at another deepwater Gulf well.

By comparison, the Exxon Valdez spill was 11 million gallons total. The Gulf spill could end up dumping the equivalent of 4 Exxon Valdez spills per week. [emphasis added]

That is a prospect so utterly appalling it leaves one stunned. To say nothing of this:

Thursday, federal officials said they were preparing for the worst-case scenario but didn't elaborate.

What kind of "preparation" could anyone make against the prospect of 6 million gallons of petroleum pollution a day bearing down on the Gulf Coast each and every day for two or three months until a new hole is drilled and the black crude river shut off? Abandon the coast?

A beach friend we were talking to today says this entire BP mess reminds her of nothing so much as 9-11. Because, she says, "It changes everything."

UPDATE
4-30 pm

National Public Radio is carrying the "worst case scenario" story, too. It is so painfully obvious the feds aren't "elaborating" on their plans because they don't have any.

We're not being critical, mind you. No one has a clue what to do right now with the consequences of "drill, baby, drill." Much less does anyone know what to do if 6 million gallons of crude a day begin gushing into the Gulf.

Meanwhile, Bryan at Why Now? reports newly "Independent" governor Charlie Crist has officially declared an "emergency" for the Florida Panhandle. North Escambia.com tells us what little that means.

UPDATE 2
4-30 PM

CBS has the BP oil leak, by the numbers.

Beach Perspectives on the Oil Spill Catastrophe

So far as we can see today, the only oil leak booms on Pensacola Beach are floating near the southwestern shoreline of Little Sabine Bay (click here or on the above photo). We can't be sure whether they were put in place anticipating the massive BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill reaching here, or are serving another purpose.

A New Orleans reporter, by the suitably sonorous name of Cain Burdeau, early this morning filed a report about the 'river of oil' bearing down on Louisiana today. ["Some Oil Begins to Ooze Ashore"]. Along the way, he mentions the marine weather forecast and how it impacts the delta:

The National Weather Service predicted winds, high tides and waves through Sunday that could push oil deep into the inlets, ponds and lakes that line the boot of southeast Louisiana. Seas of 6 to 7 feet were pushing tides several feet above normal toward the coast, compounded by thunderstorms expected in the area Friday.
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Crews are unable to skim oil from the surface or burn it off for the next couple of days because of the weather, Coast Guard Rear Adm. Sally Brice-O'Hara said on ABC's "Good Morning America."

Waves may also wash over booms strung out just off shorelines to stop the oil, said Tom McKenzie, a spokesman for U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, which is hoping booms will keep oil off the Chandeleur Islands, part of a national wildlife refuge.

That same wind, for now at least, also is pushing the oil somewhat away from Pensacola Beach. Click here or on the photo to the left and you can see the familiar flag at Fort Pickens. At mid-day, a moderately strong southeast breeze was whipping it generally northwestward.

A number of beach residents we spoke with this morning are surprisingly sanguine about the oil spill. "I don't think it will reach us," one friend told us. "The winds are keeping it away," another said, "but I really feel for Louisiana."

Out at the westernmost point of Santa Rosa Island, beyond the point where Union-held Fort Pickens stares sternly northward toward the Confederate mainland, a handful of vacationers and locals are enjoying a cloudy but mild day at the beach, sheltered from the southeast breeze by the fort's old seawall (see below right).

Not everyone with a connection to the beach is as confident as the residents we spoke with. Last evening, we found ourselves in Gulf Breeze at a well known recreation center. In a corner near the entrance, a television reporter was announcing the latest alarming oil-leak news. A trim tennis player who looked to be in his in early 40's shook his head disgustedly and turned away muttering, "Looks like I'll never sell another house on Pensacola Beach."

The truth is, although Louisiana is not quite two hundred miles west of Pensacola Beach, we will be deeply affected -- and for a very long time -- by the BP oil spill, whether the tar balls reach us soon or never. So, indeed, will be the rest of the nation.

Louisiana's delta is the spawning ground for shore birds, sea life creatures of every description -- and countless plant and insect species upon which they depend. Millions of Americans depend upon all of that for their livelihood. Their misfortune can only worsen the national jobless recession.

Moreover, the entire nation depends upon the unique Louisiana wetlands to put food on the family table. Losing half the world's blue fin tuna, and a very high percentage of other sea-life dependent food sources, will be a severe blow to the overall economy.

As the Pensacola Journal perceptively editorializes today, "risk is not just the calculated numerical possibility of such an accident happening." Nor, we might add, is it measured, like hurricanes so often are, by whether it happens to hit us right here.

It is the calculated possibility of such an event happening — multiplied by the extent of the damage that could result if the event did occur. That's the risk we should focus on.

And when the potential extent of the damage is unacceptable? It should be clear that the risk is unacceptable.

What makes the BP oil spill so much more catastrophic than almost any other disaster you can conceive is the "potential extent of the damage." That "extent" reaches well beyond Louisiana -- and Pensacola Beach, for that matter. It will have a severe impact on the entire nation.

As McClatchy News reports --

Oil from a ruptured drilling rig could harm all kinds of marine life in the Gulf of Mexico, from the Atlantic tarpon and bluefin tuna that have key spawning areas nearby to endangered sea turtles, commercial fisheries, migrating song birds and marine mammals.

Bluefin tuna, tarpon, red snapper, dolphins, sea turtles, shrimp, oysters, shore birds -- merely to glance at the top of a long list of wildlife life about to be extinguished -- do not respect state boundaries. They occupy and depend upon a healthy ecology that does not stop at the water's edge of the Chandeleur Islands, or Santa Rosa Island for that matter. Nor more so than the shrimp you buy in the grocery store or the shore birds that are nesting this year on Pensacola Beach.

All Americans will be deeply and directly affected by the BP oil spill, however far the oil itself may or may not reach, and whatever state's shorelines it may or may not pollute.
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