Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Shear Relief

There's a lot of late season tropical action in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. Almost all of it, though, is expected to encounter wind shear. That's good news, especially for the eastern and central Gulf Coast.
  • Tropical Storm Karen likely will be steered northwest toward the Bahamas or the U.S.East Coast, if it survives at all.
  • T.D. 13 is threatening only the Mexican coast, and at that it isn't really much of a threat.
  • All but one computer model shows Invest 97L weakening under shear conditions and at most bringing rain to south Florida.
  • Even if 98L reaches tropical storm status it's likely to be a weak one and never make it into the Gulf.
Maybe the place Pensacola Beach people want to watch is what's coming off the suddenly active African coast. Wunderblog's Jeff Masters reports:
"This tropical wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, and has some potential for development over the next few days. Most of the computer models forecast that a tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa in the next 2-5 days."
If you thrill to imagining tropical bogeymen, take a look at this satellite image of the eastern Atlantic from early today:

1 comment:

Shawn said...

I can remember years and years ago a storm on October 31st. Hopefully nothing will come this year. I don't mind the surf as long as it does't hit anything.