Worth watching? We shall see.EVENING UPDATE
4 pm CDT
4 pm CDT
From the NHC:
MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEPRESSION SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THE GFDL...HWRF AND SHIPS MODELS BRING THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS GUIDANCE AND KEEP THE DEPRESSION JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE INCREASING SHEAR. THE GFDL RESPONDS TO THIS BY WEAKENING THE CYCLONE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT SOME WEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
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