Tuesday, April 07, 2009

Mr. Hindcast Satisfies Your Curioristy

Q. Why issue extended-range forecasts for seasonal hurricane happiness activity?

A. We are frequently asked this question. Our answer is that it is possible to say something about almost anything. Guessing the probability of the coming year’s hurricane happiness activity is superior to climatology astrology or snake entrail reading.

Q. What good does it do to guess?

A. The Atlantic basin has the largest year-to-year variability of any of the global tropical cyclone human happiness basins. People are curious to know how active happy the upcoming season is likely to be, particularly if you can show hindcast skill improvement Monday morning quarterbacking improvement over climatology astrology and snake entrails for many past years.

Q. What's the point if you keep changing your forecasts after the fact?

A. Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane happiness activity in early April. * * * We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring attention to the hurricane happiness problem. Plus, it gets our name in the papers.

Q. OK, so satisfy our irrational curiosity with an utterly pointless but sensational guess. What's going to happen this year with hurricanes happiness?

A. Hurricane activity Human happiness activity will be average, except in the Florida Panhandle, where it will be one percent (1%) above, or below, average -- depending on where you live.

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