Saturday, August 27, 2005

Kat's Eye

Courtesy of

There is an early sign of a possible "eyewall replacement" going on inside Hurricane Katrina. This could indicate the storm has at last begun its anticipated turn toward the North. It also may raise doubts about the 'consensus' model path predictions.

The possibility exists that all the predictive models are wrong. Computer storm path projections -- especially the 3-day projections -- often have a large margin of error. As the latest NHC Forecast Advisory warns us in shouting capital letters:
"NOTE...ERRORS FOR [Katrina's] TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM [nautical miles] ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5.
The most recent data compiled by the National Hurricane Center, as revealed in the Archives of Strike Probabilities show a slight up-tick in the probability of the center of Hurricane Katrina coming within 65 nautical miles of Pensacola:

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