Wednesday, October 19, 2005

NHC's 'Emily Litella' Moment

The News Journal's Derek Ortt explains that the National Hurricane Center must have had an Emily Litella moment late Wednesday afternoon. Never mind.

The most recent confusion over forecast models "likely was a bad run," he says:
"There were no GPS dropsondes used in the initialization of the model, leading the model to guess as to what the atmosphere was doing at the initial time. Therefore, one should not make any decision based upon that model."
Back to Plan A:
The latest GFS appears more realistic in bringing the hurricane across south Florida on Sunday without stalling it over the Yucatan.

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Continue to comply with all orders given by local emergency management officials.

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The effects in Pensacola should be limited to high waves on the beaches.

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