It appears those earlier forecast tracks that had Wilma making a sharp right turn to cross the southern Florida peninsula and miss the Gulf Coast are "inoperative."The 5 pm EDT forecast discussion for Hurricane Wilma should be very worrisome for Gulf Coast residents. A lot has changed for this mercurial storm -- once again in just a few hours.
That weird earlier prediction, about noon today, that Wilma might threaten New England if it were to be steered by a low pressure front "has completely collapsed," the NHC says. And with it, the Hurricane Center's confidence in all of its previous forecats seems to have collapsed, too.
It appears those earlier forecast tracks that had Wilma making a sharp right turn to cross the southern Florida peninsula and miss the Gulf Coast are "inoperative."
The latest expert discussion points out that --
[T]his illustrates ... the extreme sensitivity of Wilma's future track to its interaction with the Great Lakes Low. Over the past couple of days... Wilma has been moving slightly to the left or South of the model guidance... and the left-most of the guidance solutions are now showing Wilma delaying or missing the connection with the low. ... If Wilma continues to move more to the left [i.e. West] than expected... substantial changes to the official forecast may have to be made down the line. [italics added]In other words, there is now a substantially heightened chance that Northwest Florida may yet again face a catastrophic hurricane within the next several days.
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