Thursday, September 04, 2008

Hurricane Ike Hard To Predict

UPDATE BELOW
Hurricane Ike is now "an extremely dangerous Category Four hurricane," the National Hurricane Center says. The storm, however, is still well out to sea. Its eventual landfall point and strength remain highly dependent on a complicated series of atmospheric phenomena.

The models, however, presently result in a "consensus" projected path over or very near south Florida, as shown above, and into the Gulf of Mexico sometime early next week.

NHC offers more details:
A DEEP-LAYER HIGH IS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WOULD LIKELY CAUSE THE HEADING OF IKE TO BEND WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IT IS EXPECTED THAT IKE WILL HAVE PASSED THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...AND TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST.
* * *
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN 4- AND 5-DAY TRACK FORECASTS... IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT LAND AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS HURRICANE.
Looks like another weekend of anxiety and preparation.

UPDATE
9-4 am

NHC's 11 o'clock update sounds even more confused.
THE MODELS HAVE SPLIT INTO TWO GENERAL CAMPS THIS MORNING. THE UKMET/GFS/HWRF ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE INITIALLY...THEN SHOW LESS OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS... COMPRISED OF THE NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFDN/GFDL... SHOW A FASTER TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AND SUGGEST MORE OF A THREAT TO THE BAHAMAS.
Result? Essentially no change, for now.

1 comment:

Harry Knopp said...

An easy way to track Ike is with http://www.USAMediaGuide.com. It has a special section of links to Ike's projected path, National Hurricane Center and local news coverage, hurricane preparation tips, live streaming webcams, and other Ike-related stuff.