Ike Uncertainty

While the entire East Coast watches Hannah, here in Pensacola we're keeping a wary eye on Hurricane Ike.

The NHC says at 11 am Friday that 'regardless' of some modest wind sheer affecting Ike at the moment, "all signs are that Ike will be a dangerous hurricane for days to come." The uncertainty is over its future path, as the National Hurricane Center shouts:

THE MODELS THAT DRIVE THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/HWRF/GFDL MODELS... SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTACT ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY SEND IKE TOWARD CUBA OR THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE UKMET/GFDN/NOGAPS... ON THE OTHER HAND... SUGGEST THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE MORE THE WEST AND HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AROUND 80W. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE LATTER CLUSTER OF MODELS ALREADY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GUIDANCE AND SHIFTED SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

Below are the latest spaghetti models. Four of six carry Ike into the Gulf by mid-week, next:

Below, you can see how NHC makes sense of those models with a (non-) census forecast cone:

As always, NHC adds, "Five-day track forecasts can have significant errors."