Ike Clobbers Cuba; Keys Evac Lifted

UPDATED BELOW

Ike is a Category 2 hurricane at the moment, located about 165 nautical miles southeast of Key West, and moving at 14 mph. Naval Meteorologists report it has 12 ft. seas. The Navy's long-range 5-day forecast path now points directly at Galveston, Texas.

Florida Keys papers report this afternoon that --

The mandatory resident evacuation order for Hurricane Ike, set to expire at noon today, will not be extended * * *

The current track of Hurricane Ike takes the core of the storm well south and west of the Keys and sustained hurricane force winds should miss the island chain, meteorologists at the National Weather Service Key West office said.

A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning continues for the entire Florida Keys, from Ocean Reef through the Dry Tortugas.

The National Hurricane Center's 2pm advisory reads in part:

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA TODAY... MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. ACCORDINGLY... IT IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY IKE.

UPDATE
9-8 pm

NHC 4 pm [CDT] discussion: Ike has weakened over Cuba but likely will strengthen again. Due to a weakening of the low pressure ridge over the Midwest and another anticipated to strengthen in the Southwest, computer forecast models now are in"reasonably good agreement" that eventually Ike will be steered more westerly than previously expected.