Ike's Project Path Toward the Gulf

NHC public advisory, 8am:

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
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IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES... STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF THE CENTER OF IKE.

NHC Discussion:

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE IKE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA. IN FACT... THE TWO HURRICANE MODELS ACTUALLY BRING THE CYCLONE OVER THE ISLAND IN 36 HOURS. WITHOUT QUESTION... THE PARTICULAR TRACK THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE SUGGESTING COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON IKE'S INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS ADJUSTED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO COMPENSATE FOR THE WESTWARD-SHIFTING MODEL TREND.

The U.S. Navy has its own storm path projection, and it isn't good for the central Gulf Coast: