Hurricane Ike Threatens "Certain Death"

Hurricane Ike likely will make landfall late tonight or early tomorrow morning. "Certain death" faces anyone who remains at home in Galveston, Texas, a local NHC advisory said in Houston this morning.

The advisory paints a truly appalling picture of the devastation expected from Ike:

PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES MAY FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED... SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE... WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES... INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

Although Galveston itself is under a mandatory evacuation, authorities in Houston have announced only a voluntary evacuation for parts of Houston:

Harris County executive Ed Emmett told the Houston Chronicle that people who live on high ground should remain at home.

"Unless you are in danger of water coming into your house, and I mean storm surge, not rainfall, you need to stay put," he said.

In other words, "Hunker down, Houston."

Houston-based blogger SciGuy reports:

[I]t appears as if Houston remains on target to take a direct hit by Hurricane Ike. The official forecast has changed little other than increasing landfall intensity from 110 mph to 115 mph, at landfall.

At whatever strength Ike comes ashore, it's going to be a nasty, nasty storm for coastal dwellers in southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana.

Here on Pensacola Beach, nearly 500 hundred miles east of Houston, the outermost band in Hurricane Ike's enormous windfield appeared to be passing overhead early this morning.

Winds and surf will be roiled for much of the day, although technically not approaching tropical storm conditions, much less anything like what the Houston-Galveston area will be seeing a few hours from now. Local street flooding has begun to recede somewhat from yesterday's high tide watermarks.