Fay Feints, Fools Forecasters

Tropical Storm Fay, it seems, is making fools of forecasters. Over the warm waters surrounding the Florida Keys, it did not strengthen to hurricane status, as predicted. But over land in south Florida it didn't diminish to a mere tropical depression, either, as forecasters also expected.

Instead of leaving Florida by today, NHC now expects Fay to turn east into the Atlantic and then do a perfect Shawn Johnson 180-degree and head back west, possibly reaching Pensacola this weekend:

Most of the global models are now indicating a tighter turn to the Northwest and then a sharper westward jog across North Florida after 36 hours and into the Gulf of Mexico by 72 hours.

Forecasters now are saying that if Fay remains over land while traversing north Florida it will diminish in strength, but if it doesn't it won't. That's helpful.

Equally helpful, here's our own storm model: