Saturday, August 16, 2008

T.S. Fay

Capulet: More torches here!
Ah, sirrah, by my fay, it waxes late.

National Hurricane Center, 5 am:
All of the models forecast the mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. to gradually erode the ridge during the next couple of days...allowing Fay to turn to the right into the weakness...eventually leading to a north-northwestward motion in 3-5 days. There are reliable models on both sides of that track. The GFDL and HWRF tracks head up the western portion of the Florida peninsula in a few days...while the GFS and Ukmet are farther west over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. In the shorter term...the models also do not agree on whether the center of Fay will pass over or just south of southeastern Cuba before turning northwestward. These differing solutions again highlight the pitfalls of focusing too much on the exact official forecast track...especially at the longer ranges.

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