Sunday, August 17, 2008

T.S. Fay - Sunday Morning Update

The short version is that as of Sunday 5 am EDT, T.S. Fay is still is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to hurricane status either before it crosses Cuba or, certainly, once it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico. A "hurricane watch" has been issued for the Florida Keys; tropical storm "warnings" out early this morning cover the rest of south Florida as far north as Bonita Beach.

While the current consensus has Fay making U.S. landfall as early as Monday somewhere near Tampa Bay, the National Hurricane Center presently is hedging all bets.

The confidence has decreased due to a spreading of the guidance envelope. Global models have very different evolutions of the steering flow over the next two to three days.

Here is your morning 3-day cup of cone:

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